Atlantic Lottery: Media Mix Modeling Analysis Leads to Increased ROI


Atlantic Lottery (ALC) is a Canadian organization that operates lottery games in Atlantic Canada and is jointly owned by the four Atlantic provincial governments. AL’s profits are distributed to the provinces for their general funds.


Atlantic Lottery wanted to better understand the strength of the relationship and the “predictability” value of various factors that may contribute to the sale of Atlantic Lottery products. These learnings would help support the case for media investment, as well as inform adjustments to the media buy to increase effectiveness and efficiency.


Time & Space partnered with The Research Design House to perform Marketing ROI and Media Mix Modeling analyses for Both National Draw games – Lotto Max and Lotto 6/49. This included a statistical analysis of weekly jackpots, advertising spend, sales, and miscellaneous data for fiscal 2015/16, 2016/17, and YTD 2017/18. The objective was to provide AL with meaningful insights as to the nature of the relationship between these factors.

Time & Space developed and tactically implemented a strategy based on the insights and recommendations gleaned from the project.

Lotto Max:

Research showed that higher sales depend on building momentum as the jackpot grows in a shorter period of time. We recommended an increase in ad spend earlier (in the week and at lower jackpots) to test the hypothesis.

Ad spend is necessary to build awareness and excitement as the jackpot grows. There is evidence that sales will continue to grow even if ad spend plateaus (for jackpots of $50 million+). Our recommendation was to test higher ad spend in radio and online to build momentum for large jackpots that appeal to impulse purchases.

Lotto 6/49:

Findings indicated that the lack of consistent ad spend due to Lotto Max media activity takeovers during high jackpots impacted Lotto 6/49 sales. It was our recommendation to test consistent ad spend to keep Lotto 6/49 top of mind regardless of the Lotto Max jackpot.

There was evidence to show that the relationship between ad spend and sales doesn’t appear to start gaining traction unless the jackpot is high. It was our recommendation to test if more consistent exposure of other game benefits (Super Draw, Guaranteed Millions, Winners) could create the excitement necessary to impact sales positively. Also, with ad spend showing a stronger score with jackpots over $20 million, we recommended testing increased spend to create a tipping point similar to Lotto Max where sales momentum builds at a quicker pace.


Early results have shown the shift in strategy to be a resounding success.

The strong relationship between Lotto Max’s sales, jackpot value, and ad spend continues with sales following the jackpot, creating a strong pattern of consumer behavior. Changes in the strategy have ad spend more in sync with jackpots and subsequently, sales have steadily increased. YTD ROI ad spend with jackpot is trending up and has increased by 52%.

Lotto 6/49 YTD revenue is now following ad spend and a shift in consumer behavior appears to have occurred. Ad spend has created a synergy between the media strategy and sales; the relationship between revenue and ad spend (YTD) has increased to 76%. YTD ROI ad spend with jackpot is progressing and has increased by 180%.